Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 274 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

UA 274 · SFO → EWR

departs 11:15 AM PT · arrives 8:10 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 39h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±3 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ 11am departures from SFO are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 274 · SFO → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?