Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2850 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow

UA 2850 · IAH → CVG

departs 12:34 PM CT · arrives 4:01 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 32h before departure

Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?

32% chance · ±2 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CVG?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at IAH that day

↑ 12pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ This flight has been late 14% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ CVG usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.47 in

CVG (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2850 · IAH → CVG

Odds over time

How late will it get to CVG?