Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 293 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

UA 293 · IAD → JAX

departs 6:43 PM ET · arrives 8:49 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JAX?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 6pm departures from IAD are often late

↑ Arrivals into JAX at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JAX

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

JAX (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 293 · IAD → JAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to JAX?