Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 304 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow

UA 304 · ORD → IAD

departs 8:12 PM CT · arrives 11:12 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 38h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±3 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling8,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

IAD (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 304 · ORD → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?