UA 324 · MCO → SFO

departs 2:54 PM ET · arrives 5:31 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±1 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 324 · MCO → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?