Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 405 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

UA 405 · DEN → LAX

departs 10:02 AM MT · arrives 11:34 AM PT

Forecast issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 40h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

8% chance · ±1 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LAX is prone to delays

↑ 10am departures from DEN are often late

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling4,267 ft Visibility8.66667 mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 405 · DEN → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?