Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 490 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

UA 490 · CLE → ORD

departs 7:00 AM ET · arrives 7:36 AM CT

Forecast issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 37h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

6% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

CLE (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

ORD (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling8,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 490 · CLE → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?