Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 511 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow

UA 511 · ORD → LGA

departs 4:21 PM CT · arrives 7:45 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · 38h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±5 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling6,733 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

LGA (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 511 · ORD → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?