Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 704 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow

UA 704 · ORD → LAS

departs 1:26 PM CT · arrives 3:18 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · 35h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±8 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ 1pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling6,733 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

LAS (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 704 · ORD → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?