Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 780 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

UA 780 · IAD → PDX

departs 5:40 PM ET · arrives 8:19 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 50h before departure

Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PDX?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from IAD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ IAD is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

PDX (destination) Gusts2 kt Ceiling3,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 780 · IAD → PDX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PDX?