Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 8200 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow

UA 8200 · SFO → IAH

departs 12:45 PM PT · arrives 6:35 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±1 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↑ 12pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.12 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 8200 · SFO → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?