Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 869 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow

UA 869 · SFO → HKG

departs 1:34 PM PT · arrives 7:22 PM HKT

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 29h before departure

Arrive at HKG more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±5 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HKG?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

HKG (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 869 · SFO → HKG

Odds over time

How late will it get to HKG?