Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
VIVA AEROBUS · FLIGHT VB 187
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
VB 187 · ORD → MEX
departs 1:41 AM CT · arrives 4:53 AM CST
Forecast issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 31h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Mon 10/12 9%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 16%
Thu 10/15 17%
Fri 10/16 16%
Sat 10/17 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at MEX more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.1d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MEX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at MEX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MEX?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
VB's recent on-time record
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MEX (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.