Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1051 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

WN 1051 · PHX → DAL

departs 9:54 AM MT · arrives 2:18 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±1 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DAL?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.10 in

DAL (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1051 · PHX → DAL

Odds over time

How late will it get to DAL?