WN 1139 · BWI → RIC

departs 10:54 AM ET · arrives 11:52 AM ET

Forecast issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 21h before departure

Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?

6% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RIC?

On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↑ Other factors

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RIC (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1139 · BWI → RIC

Odds over time

How late will it get to RIC?