Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1146
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
WN 1146 · BUR → SFO
departs 7:48 AM PT · arrives 9:11 AM PT
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/12 23%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 29%
Thu 10/15 35%
Fri 10/16 36%
Sat 10/17 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±0 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 21% of the time recently
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BUR (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.