Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1161
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
WN 1161 · MCI → LGA
departs 1:08 PM CT · arrives 4:58 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±3 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 26% of the time recently
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MCI usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MCI (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.18 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.