Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1164
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
WN 1164 · BWI → SJU
departs 7:03 PM ET · arrives 11:15 PM AT
Forecast issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 67%
Mon 10/12 32%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 20%
Thu 10/15 22%
Fri 10/16 24%
Sat 10/17 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
21%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
21%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed – in 24h
–
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at SJU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SJU?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 36% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJU
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
SJU usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
SJU (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.16 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.