Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1217
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
WN 1217 · PHX → BWI
departs 4:38 PM MT · arrives 11:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 25%
Sun 10/18 41%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.11 in
BWI (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.