Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1263
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
WN 1263 · LAS → PHX
departs 11:39 AM PT · arrives 12:51 PM MT
Forecast issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±5 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 22% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.