Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1289
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
WN 1289 · BWI → PVD
departs 6:28 PM ET · arrives 7:48 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at PVD more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PVD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at PVD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PVD?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from BWI are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at PVD that day
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PVD (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.