Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1308
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
WN 1308 · BWI → ROC
departs 4:53 PM ET · arrives 6:11 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 15%
Sun 10/18 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at ROC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ROC?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at ROC that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
ROC usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ROC (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.