Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1431
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
WN 1431 · PHX → SMF
departs 8:59 PM MT · arrives 11:05 PM PT
Forecast issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 19%
Thu 10/15 23%
Fri 10/16 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±8 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
8pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
Arrivals into SMF at that hour are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
SMF (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.