Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1434
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
WN 1434 · PHX → DEN
departs 9:29 AM MT · arrives 12:19 PM MT
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/12 34%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 13%
Thu 10/15 28%
Fri 10/16 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±3 pts
−7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 23% of the time recently
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↑
PHX is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
DEN (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.