Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1440
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
WN 1440 · DAL → PHX
departs 9:48 PM CT · arrives 10:21 PM MT
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 46%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 24%
Thu 10/15 42%
Fri 10/16 36%
Sat 10/17 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±2 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
9pm departures from DAL are often late
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DAL
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.