Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1470
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
WN 1470 · PHX → HOU
departs 10:04 AM MT · arrives 2:38 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±0 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at HOU
↑
HOU is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into HOU at that hour are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
HOU (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.