Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1478
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
WN 1478 · BWI → DAL
departs 4:18 PM ET · arrives 6:29 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±3 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at DAL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DAL?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into DAL at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 23% of the time recently
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at DAL that day
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 6 mi Precip none
DAL (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.