WN 1646 · ELP → PHX

departs 6:59 AM MT · arrives 7:25 AM MT

Forecast issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

8% chance · ±0 pts −8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↑ ELP is prone to delays

↑ PHX is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from ELP are usually not late

Weather at each end

ELP (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1646 · ELP → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?