WN 1786 · PHX → OMA

departs 8:14 AM MT · arrives 12:44 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at OMA more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to OMA?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↑ Other factors

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

OMA (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1786 · PHX → OMA

Odds over time

How late will it get to OMA?