Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1882
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
WN 1882 · LAS → TUS
departs 9:28 AM PT · arrives 10:50 AM MT
Forecast issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at TUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TUS?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at TUS
↑
This flight has been late 21% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Arrivals into TUS at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TUS (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.