Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1888
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
WN 1888 · ELP → PHX
departs 11:38 AM MT · arrives 12:03 PM MT
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/12 19%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 12%
Thu 10/15 12%
Fri 10/16 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±2 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave ELP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↑
PHX is busy at that time
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ELP
Weather at each end
ELP (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.