Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1922
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
WN 1922 · SJD → PHX
departs 12:18 PM MST · arrives 2:29 PM MT
Forecast issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 38%
Mon 10/12 19%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 16%
Thu 10/15 20%
Fri 10/16 16%
Sat 10/17 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±2 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave SJD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJD
Weather at each end
SJD (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.