Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2086
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
WN 2086 · LGA → HOU
departs 11:08 AM ET · arrives 1:55 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 2:00 AM ET · 33h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±3 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at HOU
↑
HOU is prone to delays
↑
11am departures from LGA are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
HOU (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.