Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2286
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
WN 2286 · PHX → DEN
departs 10:49 AM MT · arrives 1:40 PM MT
Forecast issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±3 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 34% of the time recently
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
DEN (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 4,267 ft Visibility 8.66667 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.