Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2306
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
WN 2306 · LAS → ICT
departs 1:43 PM PT · arrives 6:09 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 86%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at ICT more than 15 minutes late?
32%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
32%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ICT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at ICT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ICT?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
Other factors
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ICT (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.16 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.