Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2315
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
WN 2315 · SNA → PHX
departs 7:08 AM PT · arrives 8:28 AM MT
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±1 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↑
SNA is prone to delays
↑
PHX is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
7am departures from SNA are usually not late
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.