Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2381
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
WN 2381 · LAS → AUS
departs 9:09 AM PT · arrives 1:47 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at AUS that day
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 13% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.