Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2384
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
WN 2384 · PHX → BWI
departs 12:43 PM MT · arrives 8:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late
↑
12pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
Other factors
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
BWI (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.