Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2424
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
WN 2424 · LAS → SLC
departs 3:38 PM PT · arrives 5:58 PM MT
Forecast issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/12 46%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 23%
Thu 10/15 38%
Sat 10/17 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at SLC more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±6 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SLC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at SLC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SLC?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at SLC that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
3pm departures from LAS are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SLC (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.67 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.