Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2492
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
WN 2492 · LAX → DEN
departs 8:23 AM PT · arrives 11:37 AM MT
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±3 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 26% of the time recently
↑
LAX is busy at that time
↑
Other factors
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DEN (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.