Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2549
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
WN 2549 · LGA → STL
departs 8:48 AM ET · arrives 10:26 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/12 12%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 14%
Thu 10/15 6%
Fri 10/16 5%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↑
8am departures from LGA are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
STL (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.