Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2551
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
WN 2551 · LGA → STL
departs 2:35 PM ET · arrives 4:12 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 65%
Mon 10/12 39%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 34%
Thu 10/15 37%
Fri 10/16 44%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
STL (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.