Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2786
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
WN 2786 · SAN → SLC
departs 3:48 PM PT · arrives 6:46 PM MT
Forecast issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at SLC more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±5 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SLC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at SLC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SLC?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at SLC that day
↑
3pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
SLC usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 3,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
SLC (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.67 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.