WN 2845 · MSY → LGA

departs 9:29 AM CT · arrives 1:30 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±2 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MSY (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2845 · MSY → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?