Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2847
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
WN 2847 · SFO → LAX
departs 12:19 PM PT · arrives 1:40 PM PT
Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±7 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
12pm departures from SFO are often late
↑
This flight has been late 39% of the time recently
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAX (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.