Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2849 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

WN 2849 · MDW → BWI

departs 4:48 PM CT · arrives 7:41 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 49h before departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BWI?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 4pm departures from MDW are often late

↑ Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling8,067 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BWI (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2849 · MDW → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?