Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2855
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
WN 2855 · BWI → PVD
departs 2:38 PM ET · arrives 3:57 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at PVD more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PVD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at PVD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PVD?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at PVD that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
2pm departures from BWI are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
PVD usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 6 mi Precip none
PVD (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.