Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3429
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
WN 3429 · PHX → MDW
departs 12:38 AM MT · arrives 6:00 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Mon 10/12 15%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 13%
Thu 10/15 9%
Fri 10/16 8%
Sat 10/17 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.2d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 33% of the time recently
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↑
Other factors
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
MDW (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 8,067 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.