Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3873
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
WN 3873 · SLC → DEN
departs 8:32 AM MT · arrives 9:58 AM MT
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 8%
Thu 10/15 9%
Fri 10/16 8%
Sat 10/17 5%
Sun 10/18 3%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±4 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave SLC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at SLC that day
↑
Other factors
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↓
8am departures from SLC are usually not late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
SLC (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.67 in
DEN (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,933 ft Visibility 8.66667 mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.