WN 3934 · SMF → LAX

departs 11:53 AM PT · arrives 1:20 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↑ LAX is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3934 · SMF → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?